Not only in the #US Fed, but might also apply to all the governments and their sailors: Fed has a record that it is always wrong. Let's elaborate: So, imagine the Fed as a group of people who help manage money and make decisions about the economy. When we talk about their "record," it means looking at how well they've predicted certain things about the economy, like recessions (which are when the economy slows down). Now, the tricky part is that even though they're really good at some stuff, like making sure the economy stays stable, they're not always right about everything. In fact, they've never been able to predict when a recession will happen, especially after big events like when prices of things go really high (which we call bubbles). They were happy when the prices of things went up a lot because it seemed good for the economy, but they didn't realize it could cause problems later when those prices suddenly dropped (that's what we call deflation). And when that happened, they didn't admit they had a part in it. So, even though they've done good things, like helping the economy, they've also made mistakes and didn't always see the problems coming. - Curtsy of Jeremy Grantham, the “bubble historian.”